How to choose a target for a Dota 2 skin upgrade

Two prices set the chance: the value of your stake and the price of the target. The formula is the same for everyone: chance = 0.95 × stake ÷ target price.

• balance in the stake counts at its full value;
• an item in the stake counts at 100% of its market price;
• a target costs 100% of its market price;
• the chance is never higher than 80%.

The rarity of an item, the hero, your balance, your history and the number of upgrades you have played do not change the chance. Only the stake, the target price and the common coefficient 0.95 go into the calculation.

The multiplier shows how many times the target costs more than the stake. A stake of 900.00 ⬢ and a target of 1,800.00 ⬢ give ×2; a target that costs twice as much gives ×4.

The chance is inversely proportional to the multiplier: chance ≈ 0.95 ÷ multiplier. In our example it is 47.5% at ×2, half of that at ×4 and a quarter of it at ×8. The higher the multiplier, the bigger the possible win and the more rarely it happens.

The ×2, ×4 and ×8 buttons under the target card pick an item priced around “stake × multiplier” from the ones available. The percentage buttons do the same by the chance you want. You can change what the buttons do in the settings (the gear icon) and replace the picked target with any other: the buttons only give you a starting point.

Not every target can be taken with every stake. The site rules out the ones that do not fit and says why.

• the target must cost more than the stake;
• if the chance would be above 80%, the target cannot be picked — take a pricier one or reduce the stake;
• the chance has a lower bound too: a target on which it would be close to zero is unavailable — increase the stake or pick a cheaper target;
• one upgrade takes a limited number of items and targets, and the total price of the targets is capped: if a limit is exceeded, the site refuses before the game and names the reason.

The target list can be searched and sorted by price.

By default you aim at a single item. The “Multi” switch by the target card lets you pick several targets in one upgrade; their number is limited, and the limit is shown in the interface.

In this mode the chance is calculated for the total price of all the targets, and there is one roll: on a win you receive all the targets at once, on a loss none of them. For example, with a stake of 900.00 ⬢, two targets of 1,800.00 ⬢ each give a chance half of the 47.5% you would have on one such target.

The average return does not change with the mode; only the shape of the result does: the whole set or nothing. “Multi” suits you when you want a set of items and accept a lower chance for the whole set.

The chance falls exactly as much as the prize grows. A stake of 900.00 ⬢ on a target of 1,800.00 ⬢ gives 47.5%: on average that is 47.5% × 1,800.00 ⬢ = 855.00 ⬢ per game, which is 95% of the stake. A target twice as expensive gives half the chance, twice the prize and the same average return, 95%.

So there is no “better value” target: the difference between ×2 and ×8 is not the average result but the nature of the risk. A high chance means frequent but smaller wins, a low chance rare and bigger ones. The house edge (5%) is the same in both cases.

An item in the stake is taken in below its market price, so the chance on the same target is a little lower: an item with a market price of 900.00 ⬢ counts as 900.00 ⬢, the chance is 47.5%, and the average return is 855.00 ⬢, about 95% of the item’s market price. The details are in RTP and the house edge.

Pick the stake and the target: the chance appears in the centre of the wheel, with the multiplier under it. Until you press “Upgrade” nothing is spent, so you can change targets as often as you like and watch how the chance moves.

You can check the number yourself: multiply the value of the stake by 0.95 and divide by the target price. Before the game the site compares the stake, the target price and the chance once more with current prices; if they moved while you were choosing, nothing is played and you see the new terms.

The result of each game is fixed before the roll and anyone can recompute it: open “Profile → History”, press the shield button on the upgrade, and the fairness page opens with the data already filled in. The principle is described in How provably fair works.

The check proves that a result was not swapped. It does not make a win more likely: the chance is the formula above, and the house edge is stated openly.

• There is no “right” target, “hot” moment or order of actions that improves the chance: the coefficient 0.95 is the same for everyone, and the chance comes from two prices only.
• A run of losses does not raise the chance of the next upgrade, and a run of wins does not lower it: every game is independent of the earlier ones.
• Raising the stake “to win it back” does not change the chance — it only raises the amount you lose.
• A high chance is not a guarantee: even at 80% a loss is possible.

Upgrades are entertainment with a real chance to lose, not a way to earn money. Over the long run, playing costs about 5% of what you stake from balance. Set a budget beforehand and stake only what you are ready to lose. The site is for adults only (18+).

More in Play with a clear head and the Terms of Service. Won an item? How to get it into Steam is in Withdrawing Dota 2 skins to Steam; answers to common questions are in the FAQ.