How the Dota 2 upgrader works: chance, stake, target

You put your items (and, if you wish, part of your balance) on the line and pick an item that costs more. Before you press anything, the site shows the exact chance. If the upgrade succeeds, you receive the target in full; if it fails, the stake is lost. There is no partial result: either the target or nothing.

The pricier the target compared with the stake, the lower the chance and the bigger the potential win. You decide what to risk and how high to aim.

You play after signing in with Steam: the account is created at your first sign-in, and the site never receives your Steam password. A stake needs items or balance on the site. You can get them like this:

• buy items in the site’s shop with your balance;
• win them in earlier upgrades — they land in your inventory on the site;
• top up your balance by card, SBP, crypto or with Steam skins — the methods depend on your country and are listed in the top-up window.

Note that the items in a stake come from your inventory on the site, not from your Steam inventory. Skins from Steam are deposited first and turn into balance (see the frequently asked questions).

Select one or more items in your inventory — the number of items in one upgrade is limited, and the limit is shown in the interface. You can add part of your balance on top; for that, the stake needs at least one item.

The stake is valued like this:

• balance counts at its full value;
• an item counts at 100% of its market price;
• very cheap items are not accepted as a stake.

Market prices come from current data and move, so the value of your item in a stake can differ from yesterday’s.

The target is an item from the site’s catalog that costs more than your stake. You can browse, search and sort the list; the ×2, ×4, ×8 and percentage buttons quickly narrow it to the multiplier or chance you want.

There is also a “Multi” mode: you can pick several targets in one upgrade. The chance is then calculated for their total price, and on a win you receive all of them.

A target’s price is 100% of its market price. A target must cost more than the stake; a target on which the chance would be higher than 80% cannot be picked; and a target that is too expensive for a small stake is unavailable because the chance has a lower bound too. A single upgrade is also subject to limits (for example, on the total price of the targets): if one is exceeded, the site refuses before the game and says why.

The chance is shown before you press the button and comes from one formula: chance = 0.95 × stake ÷ target price. It is capped at 80%.

Example: a stake of 900.00 ⬢ on a target of 1,800.00 ⬢ gives a chance of 47.5%. The closer the target’s price is to the stake, the higher the chance; the further away, the lower.

The coefficient 0.95 is the same for everyone and does not depend on your balance, history or how many games you have played. It is where the house edge lives: on average, over many games, 95% of what is staked from balance comes back to players. The numbers are explained in RTP and the house edge.

Before the game, the site checks the terms once more against current prices. If the target’s price, the value of the stake or the chance changed while you were choosing, the game is not played — you see the new terms and decide again.

If everything matches, the result is decided on the server at the moment you confirm: your server seed, your client seed and the game number produce a number from 0 to 100, and the upgrade wins when it is below the chance. The wheel animation only shows a result that has already been determined.

A confirmed upgrade cannot be cancelled.

• Win: the target (or all targets in “Multi” mode) appears in your inventory on the site at once. You can withdraw it to Steam, sell it for balance or stake it in the next upgrade.
• Loss: the items and the part of the balance you staked are not returned.

Every game is independent of the earlier ones: a run of losses does not raise the chance, and a run of wins does not lower it.

• Withdraw to Steam. Press the Steam icon on the item in your inventory and confirm. You need a saved trade link of your own account, Steam Guard switched on, no trade restrictions and an open Steam inventory.
• Sell for balance. The sale price is shown in the tooltip and is credited at once; you can spend the balance in the shop or add it to the next upgrade.
• Keep it in your inventory or stake it again.

After a withdrawal request, the item is bought for you from our item supplier’s marketplace and a trade offer arrives in your Steam — usually within a few minutes, though the time depends on Steam and the market. Accept it in Steam; the status is shown in your profile. Details and common problems are in the frequently asked questions.

Every game is saved in your profile history. Before the game you are shown the hash of the server seed — a fingerprint that fixes the result in advance. When you change your pair of seeds, the old server seed is revealed, and any game played with it can be recomputed on the fairness page or in any HMAC-SHA256 calculator.

The principle is described in How provably fair works. The check proves that a result was not swapped; it does not change the chance itself — that is the formula above.

Upgrades are entertainment with a real chance to lose, not a way to earn money. Over the long run, playing costs about 5% of what you stake from balance. Stake only what you are ready to lose, set a budget beforehand and do not try to win losses back.

The site is for adults only (18+). More in Play with a clear head and in the Terms of Service.